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Identifying along which lineages shifts in diversification rates occur is a central goal of comparative phylogenetics; these shifts may coincide with key evolutionary events such as the development of novel morphological characters, the acquisition of adaptive traits, polyploidization or other structural genomic changes, or dispersal to a new habitat and subsequent increase in environmental niche space. However, while multiple methods now exist to estimate diversification rates and identify shifts using phylogenetic topologies, the appropriate use and accuracy of these methods are hotly debated. Here we test whether five Bayesian methods—Bayesian Analysis of Macroevolutionary Mixtures (BAMM), two implementations of the Lineage-Specific Birth–Death–Shift model (LSBDS and PESTO), the approximate Multi-Type Birth–Death model (MTBD; implemented in BEAST2), and the Cladogenetic Diversification Rate Shift model (ClaDS2)—produce comparable results. We apply each of these methods to a set of 65 empirical time-calibrated phylogenies and compare inferences of speciation rate, extinction rate, and net diversification rate. We find that the five methods often infer different speciation, extinction, and net-diversification rates. Consequently, these different estimates may lead to different interpretations of the macroevolutionary dynamics. The different estimates can be attributed to fundamental differences among the compared models. Therefore, the inference of shifts in diversification rates is strongly method dependent. We advise biologists to apply multiple methods to test the robustness of the conclusions or to carefully select the method based on the validity of the underlying model assumptions to their particular empirical system.

The gene balance hypothesis postulates that there is selection on gene copy number (gene dosage) to preserve the stoichiometric balance among interacting proteins. This presupposes that gene product abundance is governed by gene dosage and that gene dosage responses are consistent for interacting genes in a dosage-balance-sensitive network or complex. Gene dosage responses, however, have rarely been quantified, and the available data suggest that they are highly variable. We sequenced the transcriptomes of two synthetic autopolyploid accessions of Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) and their diploid progenitors, as well as one natural tetraploid and its synthetic diploid produced via haploid induction, to estimate transcriptome size and dosage responses immediately following ploidy change. Similar to what has been observed in previous studies, overall transcriptome size does not exhibit a simple doubling in response to genome doubling, and individual gene dosage responses are highly variable in all three accessions, indicating that expression is not strictly coupled with gene dosage. Nonetheless, putatively dosage balance-sensitive gene groups (Gene Ontology terms, metabolic networks, gene families, and predicted interacting proteins) exhibit smaller and more coordinated dosage responses than do putatively dosage-insensitive gene groups, suggesting that constraints on dosage balance operate immediately following whole-genome duplication and that duplicate gene retention patterns are shaped by selection to preserve dosage balance.